As of 12/09/10 the new crop has yet to begin in China. Packers historically begin packing in late October / early November.
The delay in starting the pack and the fact that Chinese New Year is earlier this upcoming year (02/03/11 vs. 02/14/10) will yield a shorter period of actual canning time this season verses last year, limiting supply for the first quarter of 2011.
There is no carry over inventory from the previous crop in China.
The high Chinese food price, inflation, labor shortage and expected strengthening Chinese currency are all contributing to a firmer market with higher prices.
India is mainly following China’s lead.