REMA FOODS MARKET FLASH Sept 27, 2013
The International Trade Commission issued its determination in the five-year review of the antidumping and countervailing duty order on pasta from Italy and Turkey – the orders will be continued for at least another five years.
Some weakness for the US dollar as congress debates the shutdown. Euro trading at about 1.35
Market is surprisingly steady, especially considering that we’re in the FAD ban period (July 1-Oct 31).
The Spanish government has downgraded its initial forecast for the new crop now underway. Quick summary of expectations: poor crop for green, good crop for ripe and oil. In detail, for manzanillas (used primarily for green olives), they forecast a crop to 130 thousand mton, 24% below the average crop size of the past 8 year. For queens/gordals (large green olives), they forecast under 11, 70% below the average. For hojiblancas (ripe olives and oil), they forecast 232, 7% above the average. Overall production including the miscellaneous varieties is forecasted to total 478, 6% below the average. A detailed chart of all the above, including the government’s initial estimates can be found at: http://foodimportgroup.blogspot.com/
Total world output is expected to come in at 33.4 million mtons, compared with 32.8 last season. California and China are expecting lower tomato production this year compared to last. In the EU, production is forecasted to shrink 9%. Italy is expected to produce only 4-4.2 million mtons.
The winter crop has opened to a poor start. Raw material supply normally peaks at 7,500 mtons per day but is currently running at under 2,000. Cost is 5.5 to 5.9 Thai baht/kilo. Winter volume is forecasted to be 20% under 2012 primarily because of farmers switching to more profitable crops such a palms and rubber. A chart of monthly Thai crop figures for the past eight years can be found at: http://foodimportgroup.blogspot.com/
Chinese packers are primarily sold out. Statistics show Chinese exports are up 22% this year-to-date compared to last. Greece has limited stocks to offer, but at higher prices. In California, the situation continues to worsen; deliveries have fallen short of forecasts and according to the California Canning Peach Association, this will be the third smallest crop in 50 years with an expected volume of 364,400 short tons. In Chile, a frost has erased hopes of help coming from the Southern Hemisphere.
Chesapeake crabbers and scientists stated that 2013 has been one of the worst years in decades for blue crab harvesting, and scientists are attributing the collapse to a murderous biological process - crab cannibalism.